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Xclusiv Shipbrokers Weekly S&P Report

06 Δεκεμβρίου 2021.

ploia8Market Commentary:

 

A new coronavirus variant, B.1.1.529 or “Omicron Variant” has been reported from South African scientists.

On Thursday, S. Africa announced that they are studying the recently identified strain with a worrying number of mutations. More than 100 cases have been detected to date from virologists in the country, which has created nervousness as to how transmissible it may be and whether it will prove resistant to current vaccines. These news also created nervousness in global economies during Black-Friday, which became “black” for most major markets worldwide.

WTI crude didn’t remain unaffected by the market's negative reaction from the breaking news of the Omicron variant, as Britain announced a temporary ban on flights from six countries in southern Africa and other nations like Israel and Singapore have followed, with more countries expected to follow.

Crude oil had extended losses more than 13%, to USD 68.15 per barrel on Friday, the lowest level in eleven weeks. Low liquidity on a festive day in the U.S., fears of renewed lockdowns that will hurt global demand and Wall Street banks trying to get rid of oil futures, were the main reasons for the significant oil sell-off.

Oil price pressures had already started earlier the week, with oil-importing countries started to queue up behind America, as U.S. President Joe Biden announced the release of 50 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve’s inventory. In Asia, China announced the release from its state reserves according to its actual needs, which will range from 7 -15 million barrels. Furthermore, India and Japan will release 5 million barrels each, while South Korea is yet to decide its exact volume, but the indication is in the region of 3.5 million barrels. The U.K. will release 1.5 million barrels from privately held reserves. These oil releases are a kind of loan sale to private companies, who must return the crude at a later date.

These releases from major importers are not only targeting the containment of rising energy prices, but also aim to encourage OPEC to increase output. Under its current output plan, OPEC, will only gradually increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per month with the next OPEC meeting scheduled to be held on December 2nd. But among the concerns for the Omicron variant, OPEC moved its meeting to Tuesday December 7th, so to gain more time to evaluate the impact of the new variant on the global economy and fuel demand. Many market analysts speculate that this will drive to a potential output cut instead of the planned production increase.

It is too early to draw conclusions about the significance of the new variant and how it will affect the global economy and consequently shipping industry. Despite the travel bans and the early extra measures that UK and some countries have already adopted, WHO stated it’s not clear yet if the Omicron variant causes more severe disease. It would take a few weeks to understand the impact of the new variant, as scientists work to determine how transmissible it is. There are even suspicions, that the Omicron variant may elude current vaccines, Pfizer officials and Moderna’s chief medical officer were reassuring and stated that a reformulated vaccination shot could be available early next year.

Despite the concerns about Omicron variant, most of the Baltic Indices closed positively the week on a weekly basis. BPI had the most significant increase of 14.9% while BDI and BCI followed with 8.4% and 8.2% increase, respectively. On the Tanker’s indices, BCTI achieved 5 consecutive positive closings, ending the week 6% higher than the previous. Τhe only contradictions were BHSI and BDTI which decreased 1.4% and 5.4% on a weekly basis.

Capesize: The Capesize 5T/C route average started the week just above USD 29,938/day and closed the week improved by $2.5k at USD 32,393/day. Trip from Cont. to F.East is up by $4.2k/day at USD 52,775/day, Transatlantic Return voyage is also firmer by $4.5k/day at USD 37,950/day, while Pacific Return voyage is USD 31,598/day. 1y T/C rate for Capesize is USD 24,700/day, while 1y T/C for eco 180k Capesize is USD 26,000/day.

Panamax: The BPI-82 5T/C route average started the week above USD 20,535/day and closed the week improved by $3k/day at USD 23,586/day. Trip from Skaw-Gib to F.East is firmer at USD 34,659/day, while Pacific Return voyage is USD 18,929/day, while Atlantic R/V is significantly improved by more than $6k/day at USD 29,500/day. 1y T/C rate for Kamsarmax is USD 21,250/day, while 1y T/C for Panamax is USD 19,250/day.

Supramax: The BSI-58 10T/C route average closed the week at USD 25,472/day. South China trip via Indonesia E.C.India is up at USD 18,933/day, W.Africa trip via ECSA to N.China is down at USD 38,200/day, Med/Bl Sea to China/S.Korea is dow to USD 37,292/day, Atlantic R/V down at USD 32,550/day, while Pacific Return voyage is up at USD 19,079/day. 1y T/C rate for Ultramax is USD 24,250/day and 1y T/C for Supramax is USD 21,250/day.

Handysize: The BHSI-38 7T/C route average, closed the week marginally down compared to previous week at USD 27,703/day. Brazil to Continent is up at USD 40,783/day, S.E.Asia trip to Spore-Japan is USD 21,906/day, U.S.Gulf to Continent is down at USD 27,636/day. 1 year T/C rate for 38k Handy is USD 22,000/day, while 1y T/C for 32k Handy is 20,500/day

 

Crude:

 

VLCC average T/CE closed the week at USD -9,693/day. Middle East Gulf to China pays USD 10/day, US Gulf to China is USD 6,958/day, Middle East Gulf to Singapore is USD 2,442/day, W.Africa to China is USD 2,670/day, Middle East Gulf to US Gulf at USD -19,396/day. 1y T/C for 310k dwt D/H Eco VLCC is USD 27,000/day.

Suezmax average T/CE closed the week down at USD -2,487/day. Trip from W.Africa to Continent is USD -179/day, Black Sea to Med is USD -4,794/day while Middle East Gulf to Med is USD -13,559/day. 1 year T/C rate for D/H Eco 150k dwt Suezmax is USD 21,200/day.

Aframax average T/CE closed the week down at USD 2,735/day. Trip from North Sea to Continent is down by $k/day at USD 130/day, trip from Kuwait to Spore is USD 329/day and S.E.Asia to EC Australia is down at USD 4,829/day. 1 year T/C rate for D/H Eco Aframax is at USD 19,750/day.

 

Products:

 

The LR2 route (TC1) Middle East Gulf to Japan is this week down at USD 7,684/day. Trip from Middle East to Far East is USD -1,481/day, while the LR1 (TC5) route Middle East Gulf to Japan is USD 4,544/day and Amsterdam to Lome is USD 14,394/day. The MR route from Continent to USAC is at USD 8,230/day, while ARA to West Africa is at USD 10,708/day. Eco LR2 1 year T/C rate is USD 19,500/day, and Eco MR2 1 year T/C rate is at USD 15,250/day.

 

Sale and Purchase:

 

On the dry S&P activity, clients of Pacific Rim acquired 4 Chengxi built Bulkers (36m Beam) the “Chengxi CX0832”-85K/2022 Chengxi, the “Chengxi CX0833”-85K/2022 Chengxi, the “Chengxi CX0834”-85K/2022 Chengxi & the “Chengxi CX0831”-85K/2021 Chengxi for USD 140.8mills enbloc. Furthermore, clients of Pacific Rim also purchased the 6-year-old Ultramax “Noni”-62K/2015 Nacks for USD 27.2mills.

On the wet sector, 4x LR2’s the “Front Panther”-115K/2015 Guangzhou Longxue, the “Front Puma”-115K/2015 Guangzhou Longxue, the “Front Tiger”-115K/2015 Guangzhou Longxue, & the “Front Lion”-115K/2014 Guangzhou Longxue sold for USD 160mills enbloc to clients of SFL Corporation. Moreover, the LR1 “Amazon Brilliance”-73K/2005 HHI fetched region USD 12mills. Finally, on the MR2 sector, the “Arctic Bay”-48K/2006 STX, sold for USD 11.5mills on subs to clients of Atlantica Shipping.

 

 

 

 

 

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