Dry Bulk Supply: Heavier Deliveries, but Ageing Fleet Offers a Buffer:

Dry bulk supply growth has remained relatively manageable over the past three years, but the market is now moving into a more challenging phase as the orderbook expands and the delivery schedule becomes heavier.

Across the Handysize, Supramax/Ultramax, Panamax/ Kamsarmax and Capesize/Newcastlemax segments, the combined fleet has grown from approximately 972.4 mills DWT at the end of 2023 to around 1.066 bn DWT currently, an increase of about 9.6%. Annual fleet growth remained close to 3% in both 2024 and 2025 before accelerating modestly so far in 2026. The main feature of this expansion is not simply its pace, but its uneven distribution. Handysize capacity has grown much faster than the rest of the fleet since end-2023, while Capesize/ Newcastlemax supply has expanded considerably more slowly. At the same time, the forward orderbook has shifted in the opposite direction, with the greatest future supply exposure now concentrated in the larger segments. This suggests that the composition of fleet growth over the next two years could look quite different from what the market has experienced recently. Low demolition has so far allowed most newbuilding deliveries to translate almost directly into fleet expansion. Around 33.3 mills DWT was delivered in 2024 against only 3.8 mills DWT recycled, followed by 35.9 mills DWT of deliveries and 5.3 mills DWT of demolition in 2025.

During 2026 to date, approximately 32.9 mills DWT has already entered the fleet, while only 2.8 mills DWT has exited. This persistent lack of recycling has kept net additions close to 30 mills DWT per year. The forward picture is more demanding. The dry bulk orderbook has increased from around 8.0% of the fleet in DWT terms at the end of 2023 to approximately 15.0% currently. The Capesize/ Newcastlemax orderbook now stands at around 18.7% of the existing fleet, while Supramax/Ultramax is at 15.2% and Panamax/Kamsarmax at 13.1%. Scheduled deliveries for 2027 alone amount to approximately 52.1 mills DWT, equivalent to around 4.9% of the current fleet. On headline numbers, this points to greater supply pressure. However, gross deliveries should not be treated as equivalent to net effective fleet growth. Around 12.8% of the existing dry bulk fleet by vessel count is already more than 20 years old, with the proportion even higher in several smaller and mid-sized segments. This creates significant recycling potential and suggests that part of the incoming capacity could ultimately replace ageing tonnage rather than simply add to total effective supply.

Demand fundamentals remain supportive, but not strong enough to remove the supply question altogether. Total seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to increase by around 1.7% in 2027, with iron ore growing at a similar pace, while coal and grains remain comparatively subdued. Bauxite continues to stand out as the strongest growth area, with volumes expected to rise by around 7.3%, while minor bulks are also projected to post moderate gains. The quality of demand growth will therefore matter as much as the headline volume increase, particularly where longer-haul trades generate additional tonne-mile demand.

The central question for 2027 is whether tonne-mile growth, slippage and higher recycling can absorb a materially larger delivery programme. On the surface, scheduled fleet additions are running ahead of expected cargo growth, pointing to a less comfortable supply-demand balance. At the same time, the ageing fleet and the possibility of stronger demolition mean that the headline orderbook may overstate the true increase in effective capacity. The dry bulk market is therefore approaching a period in which fleet replacement, vessel utilisation and trade distances will be just as important as absolute delivery numbers in determining market balance.

 

Freight Market - Dry

 

Capesize: The Capesize C5TC average declined by USD 6.7k/day closing the week at USD 42,228/ day. Trip from Continent to F.East is down by 4.1k/day at USD 87,400/day, Transatlantic R/V is lower by 5.2k/day at USD 57,719/day, and Bolivar to Rotterdam is lower by 3.5k/day at USD 65,518/ day, while Transpacific R/V is reduced by 7k/day at USD 38,846/day. Trip from Tubarao to Rotterdam is reduced by 7.4k/day at USD 38,505/day, China-Brazil R/V is lower by 8.9k/day at USD 41,814/day, and & trip from Saldanha Bay to Qinqdao is reduced by 7.4k/day at USD 38,505/ day.

Kamsarmax/Panamax: The Kamsarmax P5TC Timecharter average started the week at USD 21,662/day closing with a decline at USD 21,349/ day. Trip from Skaw-Gib to F.East is softer by 0.3k/ day at USD 30,622/day, Pacific R/Vis down by 0.8k/day at USD 20,597/day, while Transatlantic R/V is reduced by .k/day at USD 21,618/day, and Singapore R/V via Atlantic is decreased by 0.3k/ day at USD 21,407/day.

Ultramax/Supramax: The Ultramax S11TC average closed the week at USD 22,619/day. The Supramax S10TC average closed the week at USD 20,585/day. The Baltic Supramax Asia S3TC average closed the week about 0.2k/day higher than previous week at USD 21,213/day. N.China one Australian or Pacific R/V is improved by 0.3k/day at USD 21,444/day, USG to Skaw Passero is softer by 0.6k/day at USD 32,038/day. S.China trip via Indonesia to EC India is up by 0.1k/day at USD 25,550/day, trip from S.China via Indonesia to S.China pays USD 16,543/ day, while Med/B.Sea to China/S.Korea is reduced by 0.5k/day at USD 25,786/day.

Handysize: The Handysize HS7TC average closed the week reduced by 0.1k/day at USD 18,117/day. Skaw-Passero trip to Boston-Galveston pays 0.5k/ day more at USD 14,514/day, Brazil to Cont. pays 0.1k/day less at USD 25,594/day, S.E. Asia trip to Spore/Japan 0.4k/day is softer at USD 17,531/day, China/S.Korea/Japan round trip is reduced at USD 17,206/day, and trip from U.S. Gulf to Cont. is reduced by 0.8k/day at USD 24,107/day, while N.China-S.Korea-Japan trip to S.E.Asia is increased by 0.1k/day at USD 18,169/day.

 

Freight Market - Wet

 

VLCC: average T/CE ended the week up by 72.1k/ day at USD 786,245/day. Middle East Gulf to China trip is up by 52.k/day at USD 1,286,655/day. West Africa to China trip is up by 138.7k/day at USD 645,324/day and US Gulf to China trip is up by 25.7k/day at USD 426,756/day.

Suezmax: average T/CE closed the week firmer by 320.4k/day at USD 619,858/day. West Africa to Continent trip is up by 269.5k/day at USD 500,149/day, Black Sea to Mediterranean is up by 371.3k/day at USD 739,566/day, and Middle East Gulf to Med trip is improved by 120.8k/day at USD 668,340/day, while trip from Guyana to ARA is improved by 249.2k/day at USD 478,367/day.

Aframax: average T/CE closed the week higher by 42.5k/day at USD 276,913/day. North Sea to Continent trip is down by 9.6k/day at USD 305,166/ day, Kuwait to Singapore is up by 89.4k/day at USD 354,017/day, while route from Caribbean to US Gulf trip is up by 72.9k/day at USD 259,573/ day. Trip from South East Asia to East Coast Australia is up by 52.8k/day at USD 167,691/day & Cross Mediterranean trip is up by 3.8k/day at USD 292,576/day. US Gulf to UK-Continent is improved by 35.3k/day at USD 249,280/day and the East Coast Mexico to US Gulf trip is up by USD 83.6k/ day at USD 292,749/day.

Products: The LR2 route (TC1) Middle East to Japan is this week higher by 15.5k/day at USD 269,672/day. Trip from (TC15) Med to Far East has increased by 10.8k/day at USD 72,389/day and (TC20) AG to UK Continent is up by 5.9k/day at USD 263,317/day. The LR1 route (TC5) from Middle East Gulf to Japan is up by 8.6k/day at USD 196,155/day, while the (TC8) Middle East Gulf to UK-Continent is up by 5.9k/day at USD 263,317/ day and the (TC16) Amsterdam to Lome trip is improved at USD /day. The MR Atlantic Basket is increased by 24.9k/day at USD 64,218/day & the MR Pacific Basket earnings are improved by 17k/day at USD 87,628/day. The MR route from Rotterdam to New York (TC2) is firmer by 15.5k/day at USD 269,672/day, (TC6) Intermed (Algeria to Euro Med) earnings are firmer by8.6k/day at USD 196,155/day, (TC14) US Gulf to Continent is up by 14.2k/day at USD 58,578/day, (TC18) US Gulf to Brazil earnings are higher by 3.8k/day at USD 116,097/day, (TC23) Amsterdam to Le Havre is higher by 12.7k/day at USD 69,288/day while Yeosu to Botany Bay (TC22) is firmer by 29.5k/day at USD 60,355/day and ARA to West Africa (TC19) is up by 24.7k/day at USD 61,695/day.

 

Sale & Purchase

Dry S&P Activity:

 

Far Eastern buyers have acquired the Capesize “Ekaterini V” - 173K/2012 Bohai for USD 35 mills. On the Kamsarmax sector, the “World Diana” - 82K/2020 Oshima was sold for USD 41 mills, while the “Kirribilli” - 82K/2011 Tsuneishi changed hands for low USD 22 mills. Moving down the sizes, the sister vessels “OAK” and “Juniper” - 57K/2011 STX were sold enbloc for USD 33 mills, while “New Horizon” - 55K/2010 Kawasaki was sold for USD 18.3 mills.

 

Sale & Purchase

Tanker S&P Activity:

 

In VLCC sector there is only the old sale of “Seeb” - 319K/2011 Daewoo and “Samail” - 302K/2011 Universal which are sold enbloc for USD 160 mills but are not delivered yer. On the Suezmax sector, the “Almi Galaxy”- 157K/2012 Daewoo was sold for high USD 80s mills, the “Tianlong” - 159K/2009 Bohai changed hands at the high USD 80 mills and the “Nordic Freedom” - 159K/2005 Daewoo was sold for USD 65 mills. Moving down the sizes, the Scrubber fitted LR2 “STI Veneto” - 110K/2015 Hyundai Samho changed hands for USD 70 mills, while the similarly Scrubber fitted “STI Elysees” - 110K/2014 Hyundai Samho was sold for USD 73 mills.

On the Panamax/LR1 sector, UAE buyers acquired the “Bluebird” - 74K/2016 New Times and the “Starling” - 74K/2016 New Times for USD 110 mills enbloc, while the “Jag Sparrow” - 75K/2005 HHI changed hands for high USD 23 mills. On the same sector, the “Andes” - 68K/2003 Koyo was sold for USD 13.5 mills. On the MR2 sector, the ice classed “Torm Laura” - 53K/2008 GSI was sold for USD 22.5 mills, while the “Green Planet” - 51K/2014 Dae Sun changed hands for USD 36.5 mills.

The “MP MR Tanker 1” - 50K/2011 HMD was sold for USD 29.3 mills basis delivery in December, while the “Leon Grace” - 50K/2008 Hyundai Mipo was sold for USD 22.9 mills. Moving further down the sizes, the “Akar West” - 47K/2003 Admiralteyskiy changed hands for USD 4.5 mills, while the “Easterly Jupiter” - 37K/2009 Hyundai Mipo was sold for USD 19 mills basis December 2026 cancelling. Finally, the Stainless steel “Bow Victory” - 21K/2016 Asakawa was sold for region USD 30 mills.

 

Commodities

 

• In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial average decreased by 1.3% at 51,177 points, S&P 500 went down by 0.27% at 7,723 points and NASDAQ rise by 0.45% at 27,191 points. In Europe, with the Euro Stoxx50 closing down by only 1.02% at 6,239 points and Stoxx600 down by 1.14% at 631 points mark. In Asia, the Nikkei closed the week at 68,309, gaining 2.93% on a weekly basis, while Hang Seng went down by 2.19% at 23,972 points mark and the CSI 300 index closed the week at 4,358 points, 1.84% lower than previous week.

• Crude oil held below $91 a barrel on Monday, with markets balancing easing supply pressures against renewed geopolitical risks. Prices came under pressure after Saudi Aramco cut the November selling price of Arab Light to Asian buyers to $5 a barrel below the regional benchmark, a deeper discount than the $2 offered for October.

• Soybean futures fell to around $12.7 per bushel, nearing a five-week low as harvest pressure from an expected recordlarge US crop weighed on prices. A wet late summer and early autumn slowed the harvest pace, but the arrival of new supplies continued to pressure the market. The harvest was 17% complete as of September 27, matching the five-year average, with the crop rated 58% good or excellent.