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With a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon in place, at the time of writing, focus shifts to whether broader regional tensions, particularly between the United States and Iran, can move toward de-escalation.

Any sustained improvement in security conditions would be expected to reduce disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz and support the resumption of normal vessel movements, which should then have the knock-on effect of bringing down bunker fuel costs.

Recent rate movements show a divergence across the main east–west trades, with strength on the transpacific routes and softer conditions into Europe.

FBX01 (China/East Asia – US West Coast) increased by $142 week-on-week to $2,701. FBX03 (China/East Asia – US East Coast) rose by $152 to $3,830. FBX11 (China/East Asia – North Europe) was broadly flat, edging up $7 to $2,785. In contrast, FBX13 (China/East Asia – Mediterranean) declined by $352 week-on-week to $3,461.