MARKET COMMENTARY:

Dry bulk closed 2025 in a very “old-school” way: not through a demand explosion, but through utilization tightening, timing and just enough friction to turn small shifts into big rate moves.

The recovery was broad-based across sizes, with volatility clearly higher in H2. Capesizes were the headline act, rallying from roughly USD 7–10k/ day early in the year to a peak near USD 45k/day in December. Mid-sizes delivered less drama but more consistency: Kamsarmax improved into the USD 15–18k/day range mid-year, Ultramax peaked around USD 18k/day and stayed above average despite a Q4 correction, while Handysize climbed steadily to around USD 16k/day by year-end.

Under the hood, trade was stable rather than breakout. Global dry seaborne volumes edged up to 7.2bn tonnes in 2025 (+1.4% YoY), and the cargo mix remained dominated by the big two: coal at 2.1bn tonnes (29%) and iron ore at 1.88bn tonnes (26%). Beyond them, the “middle layer” still matters for keeping basins active and ballasting optionality alive, with other ores at 0.65bn tonnes (9%), grains at 0.63bn (9%) and project cargoes around 0.56bn (8%). Demand concentration remains the defining feature: China absorbs close to 3.0bn tonnes, or 42% of total, dwarfing the next importers (India 7%, Japan 6%).

On the supply side, Australia leads origins at 1.51bn tonnes (21%), followed by China (13%), Indonesia (10%) and Brazil (10%). Supply growth stayed controlled, but the age profile is turning into the real swing factor. The active fleet increased to 14,573 ships and 1,064m DWT in 2025, while the orderbook-to-fleet ratio edged up to 11.0% in DWT terms, still moderate by historical standards. The pressure is uneven: ordering is concentrated in Ultramax and Kamsarmax, while Capesize orderbook coverage stays low. Meanwhile ageing accelerated, with around 28% of the fleet already 16 years or older versus roughly 24% a year earlier, meaning utilisation can tighten quickly when charterers start drawing informal lines on efficiency, emissions profile, and risk appetite.

This is where coal stops being “just another cargo” and becomes a strategic variable. The IEA expects total coal exports to fall about 4.8% to 1.47bn tonnes in 2025, easing to 1.4bn tonnes in 2027 and 1.3bn tonnes by 2030, with Indonesian exports projected to shrink to 368m tonnes in 2030 from 555m tonnes in 2024. Those Indonesia-to-China/India legs are short-haul, but they are high-volume and highfrequency—the kind of baseline employment that keeps utilisation tight when iron ore pauses. If that baseline slowly leaks, the market doesn’t “collapse”; it becomes more competitive, with the pressure first felt in the segments that have been leaning on coal repositioning and regional cycles. Add the noted shift of coal cargoes from Capesizes to Panamaxes this year, and you get a redistribution of earnings power rather than a simple downshift.

Looking into 2026, the setup reads “low-growth, highernoise”: GDP still expanding (IMF 3.1%), but merchandise trade cooling, coal edging down and iron ore flat-to-modest with China sensitivity. The mechanical balance loosens, with ship demand growth of roughly 1–2% versus fleet supply around 2.6%, deliveries approaching 41.2m DWT (around 600 vessels) and fleet growth projected near 3.8% assuming 4.6m DWT of demolition. In that environment, dry bulk will be shaped less by headline tonnes—and more by tonnemile quality, scrapping discipline, and how quickly ageing steel exits the pool.

Freight Market- Dry

Capesize: C5TC avg declined at USD 30,052/day. Trip from Continent to F. East is down by 2.2k/day at USD 50,944/day, Transatlantic R/V is lower by 4.2k/day at USD 33,131/day, and Bolivar to Rotterdam is lower by 5.9k/day at USD 43,299/ day, while Transpacific R/V is reduced by 1.4k/day at USD 28,125/day. Trip from Tubarao to Rotterdam is increased by 1.3k/day at USD 36,774/day, China-Brazil R/V is higher by 4.2k/day at USD 27,132/day, & trip from Saldanha Bay to Qinqdao is increased by 1.3k/day at USD 36,774/day. Kamsarmax/Panamax: P5TC avg declined at USD 11,908/day. The P4TC avg closed with a decline at USD 10,572/day. Trip from Skaw -Gib to F. East is softer by 3.6k/day at USD 19,078/day, Pacific R/ Vis down by 3.4k/day at USD 9,908/day, while Transatlantic R/V is reduced by 4.5k/day at USD 13,427/day, and Singapore R/V via Atlantic is decreased by 2.6k/day at USD 11,341/day. SkawGibraltar transatlantic R/V (P1A_03) is softer by 4.5k/day at USD 12,143/day, Skaw-Gibraltar trip to Taiwan -Japan (P2A_03) is reduced by 3.6k/day at USD 17,589/day, and finally Japan -S. Korea Transpacific R/V (P3A_03) is reduced by 3.4k/day at USD 8,606/day.

Ultramax/Supramax: Ultra S11TC avg is lower at USD 15,441/day. The Supra S10TC avg closed the week about 1.9k/day lower than its opening at USD 13,407/day. The Baltic Supra Asia S3TC avg closed the week about 2.1k/day lower than previous week at USD 13,155/day. N. China one Australian or Pacific R/V is declined by 1.4k/day at USD 13,463/day, USG to Skaw Passero is softer by 5.7k/day at USD 25,257/day. S. China trip via Indonesia to EC India is down by 2.6k/day at USD 13,961/day, trip from S.China via Indonesia to S. China pays USD 11,903/ day, while Med/B. Sea to China/S. Korea is reduced by 1k/day at USD 19,000/day .

Handysize: HS7TC avg closed the week reduced at USD 13,432/day. Skaw -Passero trip to Boston - Galveston pays 1k/day less at USD 11,871/day, Brazil to Cont. pays 2.2k/day less at USD 20,794/day, S.E. Asia trip to Spore/Japan 0.8k/day is softer at USD 11,281/day, China/S.Korea/Japan round trip is reduced by 0.7k/day at USD 10,919/day, and trip from U.S. Gulf to Cont. is reduced by 1.4k/day at USD 21,264/day, while N.China -S.Korea -Japan trip to S.E.Asia is reduced by 0.8k/day at USD 10,275/ day.

Freight Market - Wet

VLCC: avg T/CE ended the week down by 12.5k/ day at USD 95,883/day. Middle East Gulf to China trip is down by 13.3k/day at USD 110,068/day. West Africa to China trip is down by 12.5k/day at USD 94,771/day and US Gulf to China trip is down by 11.8k/day at USD 82,809/day.

Suezmax: avg T/CE closed the week firmer by 10.2k/day at USD 86,013/day. West Africa to Continent trip is up by 13.3k/day at USD 77,027/day, Black Sea to Mediterranean is up by 7.1k/day at USD 94,998/day, and Middle East Gulf to Med trip is improved by 1.3k/day at USD 53,433/day, while trip from Guyana to ARA is improved by 12.4k/day at USD 73,879/day.

Aframax: avg T/CE closed the week higher at USD 61,730/day. North Sea to Continent trip is up by 1.1k/day at USD 71,230/day, Kuwait to Singapore is down by 4.6k/day at USD 48,755/day, while route from Caribbean to US Gulf trip is up by 14.9k/day at USD 65,816/day. Trip from South East Asia to East Coast Australia is down by 1.6k/ day at USD 39,366/day & Cross Med trip is down by 0.8k/day at USD 69,018/day. US Gulf to UK-Continent is improved by 7.1k/day at USD 63,437/ day and the East Coast Mexico to US Gulf trip is up by USD 22.k/day at USD 78,573/day .

Products: The LR2 route (TC1) Middle East to Japan is this week lower by 1.8k/day at USD 36,146/ day. Trip from (TC15) Med to Far East has increased by 0.4k/day at USD 27,395/day and (TC20) AG to UK Continent is down by 3.5k/day at USD 36,993/day. The LR1 route (TC5) from Middle East Gulf to Japan is down by 2.6k/day at USD 28,705/ day, while the (TC8) Middle East Gulf to UK- Continent is down by 3.5k/day at USD 36,993/day and the (TC16) Amsterdam to Lome trip is improved by 0.2k/day at USD 31,089/day. The MR Atlantic Basket is decreased by 3.4k/day at USD 28,982/day & the MR Pacific Basket earnings are lower by 1.3k/day at USD 31,095/day. The MR route from Rotterdam to New York (TC2) is softer by 1.8k/day at USD 36,146/day, (TC6) Intermed (Algeria to Euro Med) earnings are softer by 2.6k/ day at USD 28,705/day, (TC14) US Gulf to Continent is up by 2.7k/day at USD 20,924/day, (TC18) US Gulf to Brazil earnings are higher by 2.6k/day at USD 28,184/day, (TC23) Amsterdam to Le Havre is lower by 3.6k/day at USD 26,712/day while Yeosu to Botany Bay (TC22) is softer by 3.2k/day at USD 18,458/day and ARA to West Africa (TC19) is down by 1.3k/day at USD 26,847/day .