Weekly Shipping Marker Review

This week’s Allied QuantumSea Research examines preliminary statistics on investment volumes in the newbuilding versus second hand markets ahead of the year’s completion.

We also review the latest developments in the evolution of the shadow tanker fleet, as geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine remain elevated. Recent damage to grain and oil port infrastructure, alongside limited visibility regarding ceasefire prospects, continues to contribute to uncertainty across energy and commodity trade flows. Against this backdrop, we adopt a cautious stance heading into the first quarter of 2026, as both dry bulk and tanker markets may encounter softening momentum.

Weekly Review

SECTION I: Overview of New Building Investments

Year-End Newbuilding Investment Concentrates in Fewer, Larger Vessels

As the year ends, newbuilding investments show a clear downward trend: total orders fall from 3,832 vessels (187.2m DWT) in 2024 to about 2,531 vessels (122.5m DWT) in 2025, reflecting a significant drop in both ship numbers and tonnage.

Dry Bulk

Ordering activity contracts sharply across all size segments, with the scale of the decline clearly differentiated by vessel size. Total newbuild orders fall by ~49% year-on-year in vessel count, from 636 units in 2024 to 325 units in 2025, while aggregate ordered tonnage declines by ~41%, from 54.4m DWT to 32.0m DWT.

The contraction is most pronounced in the small and mid-sized segments. Supra/Ultramax orders fall by ~59% in both vessel count and DWT, while Panamax/Kamsarmax orders decline by ~59% in vessels and ~58% in tonnage. Post-Panamax ordering records the sharpest adjustment, dropping by nearly 79% in both vessel count and DWT. Smaller classes also retrench materially, with Handysize orders down ~33% by number and ~31% by DWT, reinforcing the pullback below the larger size range.

By contrast, larger vessels display markedly greater relative stability. Capesize and VLOC orders decline by only ~17% in terms of vessel count and ~15% in DWT, significantly outperforming the overall dry bulk ordering appetite.

SECTION I: Overview of New Building Investments

Year-End Newbuilding Investment Concentrates in Fewer, Larger Vessels

As the year ends, newbuilding investments show a clear downward trend: total orders fall from 3,832 vessels (187.2m DWT) in 2024 to about 2,531 vessels (122.5m DWT) in 2025, reflecting a significant drop in both ship numbers and tonnage.

Tanker

Ordering activity also contracts sharply. Total newbuild orders fall by ~47% year-on-year in vessel count, from 776 vessels in 2024 to 415 vessels in 2025, while aggregate ordered tonnage declines by ~38%, from 59.7m DWT to 37.0m DWT.

The pullback is most pronounced in smaller and mid-sized tanker segments. MR orders decline by ~70% in vessel count and ~70% in DWT, while Aframax orders fall by ~82% in vessels and ~82% in tonnage. Panamax/LR1 ordering records the steepest contraction, dropping by ~93% in both vessel count and DWT.

By contrast, larger crude segments display markedly greater relative stability. VLCC orders decline by only ~17% in terms of vessel count and ~16% in DWT, while Suezmax orders increase by ~44% in terms of vessel count and ~43% in DWT, standing out as the only tanker segment to record year-on-year growth. Combined, VLCC and Suezmax orders total 129 vessels and 29.3m DWT in 2025, accounting for nearly 80% of total tanker tonnage ordered, highlighting the strong concentration of investment at the large-vessel end of the tanker market.

Container

Container ordering moves in the opposite direction in unit terms. Vessel count rises from 372 units in 2024 to 504 units in 2025, while total DWT slips from 48.6m to 44.2m DWT. The outcome is a lower average vessel size, with investment spread across a wider number of ships rather than concentrated in maximum-scale tonnage.

Gas Tanker

Gas carrier investment contracts sharply. Orders fall from 255 vessels and 16.4m DWT in 2024 to just 66 vessels and 3.3m DWT in 2025, reducing the sector’s footprint in the overall newbuilding market.

Other

Other vessel categories follow a similar downward path, declining from 1,793 vessels and 8.0m DWT to 1,221 vessels and 5.9m DWT.

Taken together, and regardless of final December adjustments, the direction is unambiguous. Newbuilding activity has shifted into a lowervolume phase, with fewer vessels being ordered and significantly less tonnage being added. The decline is uneven across vessel sizes, with ordering activity falling more sharply in smaller and mid-sized segments. In contrast, larger vessel classes in dry bulk and tankers account for a relatively higher share of total tonnage ordered toward year-end.

Buyer Nationality – Newbuilding Orders (Past 12 Months)

Greece Stands Out for High Exposure to Container and Tanker Newbuildings

China emerges as the largest buyer overall, with 163 vessels ordered across all segments, showing balanced participation across dry bulk (30 units), tankers (38), containers (33) and gas carriers (4).

Singapore ranks second, with 150 vessels ordered, driven primarily by container newbuildings (41 units) and tankers (28 units), while dry bulk participation remains limited at 7 vessels.

Greece follows closely, with 140 vessels, showing a clear concentration in containers (64 units) and tankers (47 units), alongside more modest dry bulk and gas carrier activity.

Japan records 108 vessels, with a more diversified profile across tankers (30 units), dry bulk (22), containers (17) and gas carriers (12).

Indonesia, while smaller in absolute terms, still features among the top five with 79 vessels, largely driven by container orders (13 units) and limited tanker participation.

Overall, the top five buyer nationalities account for a meaningful share of total ordering activity, particularly in containers and tankers, where ownership concentration is more pronounced.